LONDON/SINGAPORE >> The dollar oscillated near a two-week high on Tuesday as investors prepared for a series of economic data, including U.S. jobs data due on Friday, which could influence the extent of an expected interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, the yen ended its four-day losing streak against the dollar after media reports said the governor of the Bank of Japan reiterated in a document presented to a government panel on Tuesday that the central bank would raise interest rates further if the economy and inflation developed as policymakers currently expect.
The Japanese yen, which had rallied 10% over the past two months, helped in part by official intervention, rose, while the dollar fell 0.7% to 145.815.
“The Governor of the Bank of Japan wrote a letter to the Japanese government explaining the decision to raise interest rates in July. He also said that the BOJ would raise interest rates further “if the economy and prices develop as expected,” said Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB.
“The yen has risen because of these comments,” she said.
The euro fell 0.13 percent to $1.1056, not far from Monday’s two-week low of $1.1042, while the pound fell 0.17 percent to $1.3124.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six competitors, was slightly higher at 101.68, just below its two-week high of 101.79, which it reached on Monday. The index fell by 2.2 percent in August due to expectations of US interest rate cuts.
Investors’ focus this week will be on US jobs data due on Friday, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last month advocated an early start to interest rate cuts in a sign of concern about a slowdown in the labor market.
Before that, the focus will be on job openings data on Wednesday and the unemployment claims report on Thursday.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the markets are calculating a 69 percent probability of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed meeting on September 17 and 18, and a 31 percent probability of a 50 basis point cut.
This week’s flood of labor market data will determine whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September, said Charu Chanana, head of currency strategy at Saxo.
“If the data remains robust, a 25 basis point cut is more likely. However, weak nonfarm payrolls, especially if they fall below 130,000 and the unemployment rate rises again, could push the interest rate market closer to a 50 basis point cut.”
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect an increase of 165,000 jobs in the US in August, compared to an increase of 114,000 in July.
Data on Friday showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – rose 0.2 percent in July, in line with economists’ forecasts and keeping the U.S. central bank on track to cut interest rates.
“We are in a Goldilocks situation right now and therefore continue to believe that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates very gradually this month,” said Win Thin, global head of market strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, in a note.
However, markets are expecting cuts of 100 basis points in the remaining three meetings this year.
With risk sentiment appearing somewhat shaky, the Australian dollar lost 0.6 percent to $0.6749, while the New Zealand dollar, after rising 5 percent last month, slipped 0.61 percent to $0.6196.